2024 race: Are economic issues sidelining climate and LGBTQ+ rights?

by Jon King, Michigan Advance
October 29, 2024

“It’s the economy stupid.”

If the polls are to be believed, the catchphrase of Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 campaign for the White House aptly applies in 2024, with a recent Gallup poll ranking the economy as a potentially significant factor for 9 in 10 voters.

And the campaigns of both former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have responded accordingly, making economic issues one of the prime focuses of their pitch to voters. But that’s pushed other important issues into the background, such as climate change, LGBTQ+ rights and health care.

Harris’ economic plan centers on tax breaks including $6,000 for new parents for the first year of their child’s life, as much as $25,000 in down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers and an up to $50,000 tax break for first-time small businesses.

She summed up her approach earlier this month in Detroit as prioritizing an “opportunity economy.”

“… We are a nation of people who have ambition, who have aspirations, who have dreams.  And we need to tap into that, knowing that not everybody necessarily has the opportunity to actually achieve their goals but not for lack of innovation and ideas and hard work and grit. So, a lot of my vision for what we need to do as we move forward as a new generation of leadership for America is about making sure that people have access to opportunity,” Harris said.

Trump, meanwhile, has emphasized a protectionist economic vision based on broad tariffs imposed on imported goods, which he says will force American manufacturers to being back jobs from overseas. 

“Under the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act, other countries will have two choices — they’ll get rid of their tariffs on us, or they will pay us hundreds of billions of dollars, and the United States will make an absolute FORTUNE,” said Trump. “If India, China, or any other country hits us with a 100 or 200 percent tariff on American-made goods, we will hit them with the same exact tariff. In other words, 100 percent is 100 percent. If they charge US, we charge THEM — an eye for an eye, a tariff for a tariff, same exact amount.”

Perhaps the biggest factor in determining what issues are important to voters, and thus to politicians, is partisan affiliation.

While two-thirds of Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters rate the economy as “extremely important” when considering a candidate for president, only about one-third of Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent voters feel the same.

It’s only when the “extremely important” and “very important” responses are combined do the numbers begin to even out, although even then, it’s 98% among Republican/Republican-leaning voters and 82% among Democratic/Democratic-leaning voters.

“The economy is the top-ranked issue for Republican voters, but it is not among Democratic voters’ top five issues,” notes Gallup. “In fact, there is no overlap between Republican and Democratic voters in the top five issues ranked as extremely important to their votes. For Democrats, democracy in the U.S., the types of Supreme Court justices the candidates would pick, abortion, healthcare and education are the five most important voting issues. Immigration, terrorism and national security, crime, and taxes round out Republican voters’ five top issues.”

It’s no surprise immigration tops the priorities for Republican voters, as it has been almost the singular obsession of their nominee, largely based on falsehoods and conspiracy theories such as Trump falsely claiming during the Sept. 10 presidential debate that Haitian migrants in Springfield ate residents’ pets.

The same Gallup poll ranked climate change 21st on a list of 22 issues, even though 2024 is on track to be the hottest year on record, eclipsing the previous record holder, which was 2023.  

However, Nick Dodge, communications director for the Michigan League of Conservation Voters, tells the Michigan Advance that where they have found success in getting voters’ attention is in linking environmental issues to the economy.

“How we’ve been really framing it is as a kitchen-table issue. When you talk in the abstract of reducing [global] warming by a certain degree, by a certain time, it doesn’t resonate with people as much as talking about climate change as, ‘What are we doing about it?’” he said.

Dodge points to passage of the Inflation Reduction Act as a key talking point by noting the surge in economic benefits it has brought to Michigan in terms of clean energy jobs and other investments while simultaneously working to reduce the greenhouse emissions that contribute to global warming.

“It’s a kitchen-table issue because this is about lowering energy costs with more affordable energy sources. It’s about creating good paying jobs in the emerging clean energy industry,” said Dodge. “While the different kinds of message points, and I’m talking at the federal level, haven’t exactly hit on addressing climate change, these achievements are addressing climate change. They’re reducing emissions, but they’re also building and boosting our economy. And I think that really is resonating with people.”

Another issue that has been key in the past, but is not at the top of the agenda this election cycle, is the nation’s health care system. While specific aspects such as reproductive care, especially as it pertains to abortion services, are getting headline treatment, the future of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has not gotten as much attention.

“The Affordable Care Act has been the law of the land for well over 10 years,” said Dr. Rob Davidson, executive director of the Committee to Protect Health Care and a West Michigan emergency physician. “It was transformational for health care, finally protecting people with pre-existing conditions from discrimination by insurers, expanding Medicaid to cover more Americans, allowing young people to stay on their parents’ insurance till 26, and so much more — but people have gotten accustomed to it.”

Additionally, recent reporting by KFF found that many of the features of the ACA remain unknown to the general public, which makes the differences between the two presidential campaigns on the issue less significant to the overall conversation. 

Unlike 2022’s midterm elections, LGBTQ+ rights have also not surfaced as a top topic, except as a false attack point. In fact, that Gallup poll placed trans rights dead last among 22 issues of importance to voters.

Two years ago, the issue figured prominently in the Michigan governor’s race, with Republican nominee Tudor Dixon regularly talking about the “grooming” of children and advocating for the banning of books, most often those with LGBTQ+ themes or characters. While the attacks went over well with the GOP base, they never resonated with the public at large, as her opponent, Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, ended up winning handily.

In 2024, the issue remains an attack angle for Republicans, notably in pro-Trump ads blasting Harris for her past support of taxpayer-funded medical care for transgender individuals under state care, including convicted prisoners, a policy actually begun being implemented in 2018, when Trump was in the White House.

But for Emme Zanotti, director of advocacy and civic engagement at the Equality Michigan Action Network, that doesn’t mean LGBTQ+ rights have lost importance or are receding in the public sphere.

“The LGBTQ+ community is a continually expanding and influential voting bloc that places a high value on equality. But of course, there are other priorities as well. Just like every other American, we too have to buy groceries, pay rent or a mortgage, and navigate costs associated with health care,” Zanotti told the Advance..  

Zanotti notes that transgender people account for a very small percentage of the U.S. population, with less than 30% of American adults reporting that they personally know someone who is transgender. 

“I think a byproduct of that is not having a mass of swing voters who are sitting here waiting for an answer on transgender healthcare to decide which candidates they’ll support or oppose,” she said.

On the other hand, Zanotti says a survey earlier this year by GLAAD, the world’s largest LGBTQ+ media advocacy organization, found that a majority of voters (53%) would oppose a candidate who addressed the trans community with frequent hostility. 

“I don’t find the outsized emphasis on the economy and safe abortion access as a narrative that’s exclusive or isolated from the issues related to LGTBQ+ equality,” said Zanotti. “I think all this data could indicate that voters’ sensors might go off when they see people using their platforms to espouse anti-trans views, and they are asking themselves if these outspoken positions pose a disregard for their most pressing economic questions as well as a serious risk to bodily autonomy.”

Meanwhile, reporting from the Ohio Capital Journal indicates more than 1,000 LGBTQ+ candidates have filed to run for public office in 2024, with about two-thirds of them on the November ballot. 

Michigan Advance is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Michigan Advance maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Susan J. Demas for questions: info@michiganadvance.com. Follow Michigan Advance on Facebook and X.

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