Overview:
- Michigan will issue air quality alerts when pollution reaches the orange level, earlier than the previous red "unhealthy" threshold.
- Experts expect fewer Canadian fires than last year, but drought conditions and possible El Niño pattern could increase fire risk later in summer in the country's west.
- Michigan health officials recommend air purifiers, MERV-13 filters, and N95 masks to protect against wildfire smoke, which can cause serious health problems.
After Canadian wildfires brought extremely poor air quality to Detroit in the summers of 2023 and 2025, Michigan is updating how it communicates air quality risks to residents this year.
The state is streamlining a system that has evolved with the emergence of severe smoke impacts.
The state will issue an air quality alert anytime fine particulate matter or ozone levels climb into the federal Air Quality Index’s “unhealthy for sensitive groups,” or orange range, said Jim Haywood, senior meteorologist with the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, Energy (EGLE).
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Why it matters
Wildfire smoke contains dangerous particles that can cause emergency department visits, hospitalizations, and deaths, especially among children, pregnant people, and older adults.
Who's making public decisions
Michigan’s Department of Environment, Great Lakes, Energy decides when when to issue air quality alerts and how to communicate risks to residents.
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What to watch for next
Monitor whether El Niño weather patterns emerge in late summer, which could increase fire risk in western Canada and affect Michigan’s air quality.
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Civic resources compiled by Planet Detroit
The agency previously issued alerts when the air quality index, or AQI, was forecast for the “unhealthy,” or red, range, while advisories were issued for levels in the orange range.
Haywood said forecasting models are improving, but he doesn’t like forecasting smoke conditions for Michigan beyond a 24-to-48-hour time frame.
It can be difficult to predict where smoke traveling over long distances will go, and if it will affect air quality or remain well above ground-level, he said.
Haywood recommends the Environmental Protection Agency’s AirNow webpage to access an air quality forecast for the next 48 hours. The EPA’s EnviroFlash system provides local air quality alerts.
JustAir and PurpleAir‘s private air monitoring networks offer more localized air monitoring data.
A multiday forecast map for ground-level smoke that covers most of the U.S. and Canada is available from FireSmoke Canada.
Fire conditions in Canada, western U.S.
The managing director of the research partnership Canada Wildfire said he expects fewer fires north of the border than last year, but the possible emergence of an El Niño weather pattern could lead to greater fire risk in late summer in western Canada.
Drought or dry conditions are present in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec, but recent storms have improved conditions in some areas, Canada Wildfire’s Brian Wiens told Planet Detroit.
If an El Niño weather pattern sets in, it could lead to hot weather in Alberta and British Columbia, and greater fire risk, he said.
In the United States, officials predict a severe fire season in the West at the beginning of the summer, as every state except Michigan and North Dakota is experiencing some level of drought or abnormal dryness.
The National Interagency Fire Center’s April outlook forecasts significant fire potential in much of the South and Southwest in April and May, while large portions of the West are at increased risk for wildfire in June and July.
Most of the the country should see above average temperatures while much of the West is predicted to have below-average precipitation, according to the three-month outlook from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.
Climate change, including increased heat and drought, has increased the risk and extent of U.S. wildfires over the last two decades, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Temperatures are above normal across nearly all of the western U.S., and precipitation is below normal, said Scott Stearns, fire warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service.
The drought and low precipitation could set up a more active fire season in the U.S., at least through July, he said.
Stearns expects an expansion of drought conditions in the West, adding that a possible above-average monsoon season in the Southwest could complicate the fire outlook.
Wet weather may put a damper on the fire season, Stearns said. Yet storms may also lead to lightning and new fire starts, and they can supercharge vegetation growth that dries out and becomes fuel.
The ability of especially large fires to create weather conditions that are conducive to even more fire complicates predictions, he said.
Protect yourself from wildfire smoke
Children, pregnant people, and older adults are often most at risk from air pollution, Laina Stebbins, a spokesperson for the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS), said in a statement.
“Studies have shown that exposure to higher levels of outdoor air pollution is associated with increased emergency department visits, hospitalizations and even deaths,” Stebbins said.
Wildfire smoke contains large amounts of PM2.5, which is 30 times smaller than a human hair, allowing it to lodge itself in lung cells and move into the bloodstream. It’s associated with cardiopulmonary illnesses, premature mortality, and mental health issues.
The MDHHS wildfire smoke webpage recommends that residents use an air purifier to protect themselves from wildfire smoke; run air conditioning; and use a MERV-13 filter, or better, for both.
If your air conditioner has a fresh air option, MDHHS advises closing the intake. Window units are acceptable if they have tight seals between the unit and window and a recirculation mode to prevent outside air from entering the home.
People without access to an air purifier or air conditioning could consider setting up a “clean room” where levels of smoke and particulates are kept as low as possible, or building a do-it-yourself air filter with a box fan and MERV-13 air filter, according to MDHHS.
If you must go outside in heavy air pollution, MDHHS recommends using an N95 or P100 respirator marked with “NIOSH.” KN95 and KF94 respirators can also be used if the first choices are not available.More information is available in Planet Detroit’s wildfire smoke guide.
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