
- Canada’s massive and highly flammable coniferous forests make these wildfires a major smoke risk for the eastern U.S.
- Experts say fires in Quebec and Ontario and winds from the north would make it more likely for smoke to come to Michigan.
- Last year Canadian wildfire smoke contributed to 20 air quality alerts in Metro Detroit.
Experts predict another active year for Canadian wildfires.
Drought or dry conditions across much of the country and continuing effects from El Niño could all contribute to another year of massive fires. Whether smoke from these fires will impact Michigan will depend on where they occur and if northern winds return to carry smoke south.
“Basically, there’s an awful lot of potential,” said Brian Wiens, managing director of Canada Wildfire, a research partnership that includes academic institutions and government entities.
“If it were not to rain very much more, if we didn’t get any more snow on the prairies, we’re set up to have really another intense year,” he said.
And more climate change-fueled Canadian wildfires could mean more smoke for Michigan.
In 2023, fires burned more than 45 million acres, an area roughly the size of North Dakota, surpassing the previous records set in 1983 when 17.5 million acres burned.
The 2023 fires in Quebec and western Canada sent smoke into the eastern U.S., contributing to more than 20 air quality alerts in Metro Detroit. On one day in late June, the air quality was ranked as the world’s worst, according to the air monitoring website IQAir.
Wildfire smoke can carry PM 2.5 or fine particulate matter, which is linked to cardiopulmonary illness and premature mortality. It can also contribute to the formation of ozone, a cause of respiratory challenges that can increase the frequency of asthma attacks.
Alec Kownacki, a meteorologist with the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy’s air quality division, said fires in Quebec and Ontario last year coincided with somewhat unusual northern winds that sent smoke to Michigan.
Quebec saw more than 12 million acres burn in 2023, more than double the previous record. And fires in Ontario, just above the northern shore of Lake Huron, also sent smoke south to Michigan.
Although fires in the western U.S. can send smoke to eastern states, resulting in asthma attacks and hospital visits, Canadian fires pose a special risk.
Wien said the boreal forest that covers much of the country is composed mostly of coniferous species, like spruces and pines, which are more flammable than deciduous trees. The large expanses of forest that are uninterrupted by development mean fires have huge blocks of fuel to draw on.
Smoke from last year’s blazes impacted air quality in places as far away as Spain and the United Kingdom, and fires in British Columbia dirtied Michigan air in mid-July, even though they were 2,000 miles away.
Canadian wildfire outlook and drought
Wiens said that the severity of the upcoming wildfire season will be determined by how dry it is and the number of fire starts. Like the U.S., Canada just experienced its warmest winter on record, with low amounts of snow cover in many areas. Wiens said this means that grasses and small twigs are already exposed to the air, which could accelerate the drying cycle for this potential kindling.
Currently, 71% of the country is already experiencing some level of drought or is “abnormally dry,” according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. The situation is worst in the West, where “extreme drought,” categorized as a once in 20-year event, covers parts of Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia and the Northwest Territories.
Closer to Michigan, parts of Ontario and Quebec are abnormally dry or experiencing moderate or severe drought.
“The wildfire outlook goes hand in hand with the drought outlook,” said Kownacki. He said EGLE has been working with colleagues in Canada and the National Weather Service to monitor drought conditions and that drought looked like it would persist in Minnesota and parts of Canada.
However, a weakening El Niño, or warming of the Pacific Ocean associated with warmer winters in Canada, could turn into a La Niña pattern, bringing cooler weather and more precipitation to parts of the country. But Wien said that is a mixed blessing in the world of fire because lightning can cause new fires.
Fire seasons and zombie fires
The fire season in western Canada could see a spark from so-called “zombie fires” that are currently smoldering in over 100 locations. Wiens said the term refers to a “little ball of smoldering embers” usually found in peat soils or piles of debris. He said these fires are often as small as a basketball and can smolder under a layer of moss that serves as an insulator.
As the forest floor dries out in the spring, the zombie fires from last fall will add to the overall fire risk as western provinces go into the fire season.
Wiens says that Canada normally has two distinct fire seasons, with many areas in the west, like Alberta, seeing a peak in May before the “green up” of vegetation. Another fire season comes in mid to late summer, typically affecting British Columbia, Quebec, and parts of Ontario.
Alberta recently moved up the start date for its fire season from March 1 to February 20. Wiens said this was prompted by a desire to staff up firefighting efforts ahead of what could be a busy fire season. Still, fighting fires across Canada’s expansive forests will remain difficult, with emergency responders needing to decide which fires to prioritize.
“Those are really, really hard decisions,” Wiens said. “That process (means) always prioritizing life and livelihoods.”
He said there are things firefighters can do to limit the size and number of fires, including catching them before they’re bigger than five acres and using drones to identify small fires. And Alberta is investing in artificial intelligence that uses historical data and weather forecasting to predict fires before they happen.
These tools could help the country adapt to rapidly changing fire behavior.
Wiens said that historically low-intensity fires happened in the boreal forest every few decades. These fires clear dead material on the forest floor and scar but do not kill trees. Occasionally, a larger fire would come along and take out a whole stand of trees.
“What seems to be happening now is that, because things are so dry, you actually don’t get very many fires that stay at sort of that low-intensity level,” he said.